特朗普面临五大外交政策选择

特朗普面临五大外交政策选择
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2016/12/16 17:48:25

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特朗普面临五大外交政策选择

Donald Trump seems to have brought the techniques of Twitter to the construction of his government.

唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)似乎将Twitter手法引入了他的政府建设。

Trolling on Twitter is defined as making a deliberately offensive online posting with the aim of upsetting someone.

Twitter上的恶意挑衅被定义为故意在线发布攻击性的帖子，目的是让某人不高兴。

In this spirit, Mr Trump has placed a climate-change denier in charge of environmental protection, an opponent of the minimum wage as labour secretary, a conspiracy theorist in charge of the National Security Council and a protectionist at the commerce department.

本着这种精神，特朗普让一名不承认气候变化的人负责环保事务，让反对最低工资的人担任劳工部长，让阴谋论者执掌国家安全委员会，让保护主义者担任商务部长。

The pièce de résistance could be the appointment of Rex Tillerson, a recipient of the Kremlin’s Order of Friendship, as secretary of state.

最出格的是可能是将克里姆林宫友谊勋章得主雷克斯.蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)任命为国务卿（译者注：特朗普已任命蒂勒森出任国务卿）。

The incredulity and alarm that Mr Trump’s appointments have caused in the Washington establishment are compounded by his disdain for the government’s own experts.

特朗普任命的人选引起了华盛顿建制派的错愕和震惊，更严重的是，他轻视政府自己的专家。

Mr Trump took a controversial phone call from the president of Taiwan without consulting the state department.

特朗普在没有征询美国国务院的情况下就与台湾总统进行了有争议的电话交谈。

Now he has ridiculed the CIA for suggesting that Russia meddled in the US presidential election.

现在，他又嘲讽美国中央情报局(CIA)关于俄罗斯干预美国总统选举的说法。

Mr Trump’s appointments, tweets and phone calls, however, cannot yet do more than hint at future changes in America’s approach to the world.

然而，特朗普的人事任命、推文和电话除了暗示美国对外政策的未来变化之外，尚不能说明太多问题。

The real shifts can only happen after the new president is actually sworn into office on January 20.

真正的转变只可能发生在2017年1月20日新总统真正就任以后。

For now, it is much easier to identify five big choices that face him, than to predict eventual outcomes.

就目前而言，梳理他面临的5大选择，远比预测最终结局容易得多。

Russia: Both Mr Trump’s rhetoric and his early appointments indicate a strong desire for a rapprochement with Russia.

俄罗斯：特朗普的言辞和他的初步人事任命表明，他强烈希望与俄罗斯和解。

The Kremlin clearly hopes that the US will lift the economic sanctions imposed on Russia after its annexation of Crimea.

克里姆林宫显然希望，美国将会解除在俄罗斯吞并克里米亚之后对其实施的经济制裁。

Mr Trump could also make common cause with Vladimir Putin in Syria, by dropping America’s insistence on the removal of Bashar al-Assad.

特朗普也可能放弃美国要求巴沙尔.阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)下台的立场，从而与弗拉基米尔.普京(Vladimir Putin)在叙利亚问题上携手合作。

But making these changes will be very controversial.

但做出这些改变将会引起极大争议。

Russia’s intervention on behalf of Mr Trump during the election, combined with the expected appointment of Mr Tillerson, have excited lurid speculation about the real nature of Mr Trump’s relationship with Russia.

俄罗斯在美国大选期间进行有利于特朗普的干预，再加上对蒂勒森的任命，激发了人们对于特朗普与俄罗斯之间究竟存在什么关系的骇人猜测。

Even without conspiracy theories, there will be considerable resistance by influential members of congress — including prominent Republicans like John McCain and Lindsey Graham — to a Trump-Putin love-in.

即便没有阴谋论，有影响力的国会重量级人物——包括约翰.麦凯恩(John McCain)和林赛.格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)等知名共和党人——也会坚决阻止特朗普和普京结盟。

Europe: While Mr Trump has been extravagant in his praise of Mr Putin, he has been open in his contempt for Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, describing her refugee policies as insane.

欧洲：在对普京赞不绝口的同时，特朗普公开蔑视德国总理安格拉.默克尔(Angela Merkel)，形容她的难民政策疯了。

There is now fear in the French and German governments that Mr Trump may seek to help the European far-right by supporting Marine Le Pen in the French presidential elections in May, or the Alternative for Germany in the country’s elections in September.

法国和德国政府现在担心，特朗普可能寻求帮助欧洲极右势力，在明年5月的法国总统大选中支持马琳.勒庞(Marine Le Pen)，或者在明年9月的德国选举中支持德国新选择党(Alternative for Germany)。

In that case, both the Kremlin and the White House would be working towards the defeat of the German chancellor.

那种情况意味着克里姆林宫和白宫联手推动默克尔败选。

Such a scenario sounds unthinkable.

这听起来不堪设想。

But Mr Trump has also described the Nato alliance as obsolete.

但特朗普还曾经形容北约(NATO)过时。

Any genuine attempt to weaken Nato, or to undermine the governments of European allies would, however, encounter fierce resistance in Congress and the media, and could undermine his presidency.

然而，如果特朗普真的尝试削弱北约或者削弱欧洲盟友的政府，他会遭到美国国会和媒体的激烈抵制，这可能削弱他作为总统的地位。

Iran: Reversing US policy on Iran would be much easier for Mr Trump.

伊朗：对特朗普来说，扭转美国对伊政策要容易得多。

Republicans in Congress share his disdain for Barack Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran.

和他一样，国会中的共和党人也不喜欢巴拉克.奥巴马(Barack Obama)与伊朗达成的核协议。

Some of Mr Trump’s key appointees — including General Michael Flynn, his national security adviser — are particularly noted for their hostility towards Iran.

特朗普任命的一些关键人选——包括其国家安全顾问迈克尔.弗林(Michael Flynn)——对伊朗尤其反感。

Ripping up the nuclear deal could put the US on the road to a war with Iran.

撕毁核协议可能让美国走上与伊朗开战之路。

Some of Mr Trump’s advisers may want precisely that outcome.

这可能正是特朗普的一些幕僚想要的结果。

But it is less clear that the president-elect, who claims to have opposed the Iraq war, really has an appetite for another conflict in the Middle East.

但目前不太清楚的是，号称反对伊拉克战争的当选总统，是否真的有胃口再卷入一场中东冲突。

The Middle East and terrorism: Beyond Iran, the new president will face a series of conflicts, from Syria to Iraq and Afghanistan.

中东和恐怖主义：除了伊朗以外，新总统将会面临一系列冲突，从叙利亚、伊拉克，到阿富汗。

Mr Trump has consistently advocated a much more ferocious approach to the war on radical Islamic terrorism.

特朗普一再主张在打击激进伊斯兰恐怖主义的战争中采取猛烈得多的手段。

But his advisers disagree about what that might mean.

但他的顾问们对这一表述的涵义意见分歧。

Some advocate much deeper American military and political involvement in the Middle East.

一些人主张大幅深化美国在中东的军事和政治介入。

Others argue that such a policy would be counterproductive and are urging a much narrower concentration on counterterrorism.

另一些人则认为此类政策适得其反，他们敦促缩小关注面，聚焦于反恐。

China: Over the long run, the most important international issue facing the US is how to handle the rise of China.

中国：长期而言，美国面临的最重要的国际问题是如何应对中国的崛起。

Mr Trump’s early moves have signalled the possibility of a radical change in America’s approach — and a sharp rise in tensions with Beijing.

特朗普的初步动作表明，美国的策略可能发生根本改变，美中关系可能大幅加剧紧张。

Mr Trump has talked of imposing punitive tariffs on Chinese exports.

特朗普谈到对中国输美产品征收惩罚性关税。

His phone call with President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan reversed decades of US foreign policy — and was a direct affront to Beijing.

他与台湾总统蔡英文(Tsai Ing-wen)的通话逆转了几十年的美国外交政策，并直接冒犯了北京方面。

Mr Trump has also endorsed significant expansion in the US Navy, which could signal a more aggressive American rejection of Beijing’s ambitions in the South China Sea.

特朗普还赞成显著扩充美国海军，这可能表明美国将更加强悍地抵制北京方面在南中国海的雄心。

If there is a broader strategic thrust to Mr Trump’s thinking, it could be to split the informal alliance between Russia and China and instead form a Washington-Moscow axis.

如果说特朗普的战略思维有什么整体的战略方向，那可能是瓦解俄罗斯和中国之间的非正式联盟，转而打造一个美俄轴心。

But Mr Trump’s attitude to foreign policy smacks more of chaotic improvisation than strategic thinking.

但是，特朗普对外交政策的态度更像是混乱的即兴发挥，而不像是战略思维。

The biggest questions about his approach may have more to do with process than policy.

关于其策略的最大问题可能在更大程度上关乎过程，而非政策。

In a normal US administration, foreign policy shifts are debated between key departments of government and implemented after talks with allies; in the Trump administration, they are as likely to emerge from a 3am tweet.

在一个正常的美国行政当局，要改变外交政策得首先在关键政府部门之间展开辩论，然后在与盟友磋商后实施；在特朗普政府，外交政策的改变可能在凌晨3点的推文中宣布。